El-Rufai’s Allies and the Politics of Survival

The decision by some of Nasir El-Rufai’s former political allies to leave the African Democratic Congress (ADC) and return to the All Progressives Congress (APC) is more than another routine episode of Nigerian political defection. It is a revealing reminder of how quickly political loyalty can be tested when power changes hands.

Among those reportedly making the journey back to the APC are former Chief of Staff Bashir Saidu, former senator Abdu Kwari and former commissioner Jafaru Sani. Their decision to return to the party and support Governor Uba Sani’s second-term ambition sends a strong political message.

The most striking part of the development is not simply that they have changed parties. It is that many of these individuals were once regarded as important members of the political family built around El-Rufai.

That naturally raises a difficult question: was their loyalty to El-Rufai based on political conviction, personal allegiance, or the opportunities that came with being close to power?

There may be no simple answer.

Politicians, like other citizens, have the right to change their political affiliations. Political circumstances change, alliances evolve and individuals reassess their interests. But the timing of these defections inevitably makes them politically significant.

El-Rufai is currently caught up in serious legal battles and remains in the custody of the ICPC as his cases proceed through the courts. The allegations against him remain allegations, and the courts will ultimately determine the legal questions surrounding those cases.

But politics operates differently from the courtroom.

In politics, perception matters. The absence of a powerful political figure creates space for others to reposition themselves. Those who once stood firmly behind him must now decide whether to continue with his political movement or find another route.

Some have apparently chosen the latter.

The reported decision of El-Rufai’s former associates to rally behind Uba Sani is particularly significant because the relationship between the former governor and his successor has deteriorated considerably since the 2023 elections.

What once looked like a political succession has increasingly developed into an open separation.

The return of El-Rufai’s former associates to the APC therefore represents another chapter in that political divide. It suggests that the political structure surrounding the former governor is no longer as united as it once appeared.

But it would be unfair to describe every political defection simply as betrayal.

Nigerian politics has always been characterised by shifting alliances. Politicians frequently move between parties when political interests change. Yesterday's political opponent can become today's ally, while yesterday's loyalist can become tomorrow's rival.

That is the nature of political competition.

The claim that the defectors are returning to the APC with more than 150,000 registered members, if eventually demonstrated, would make the movement particularly noteworthy. Numbers matter in Nigerian politics, especially when elections approach.

But beyond the numbers lies a more important question: what remains of a political movement when its central figure is no longer able to personally coordinate it?

El-Rufai built a powerful political network in Kaduna. His influence extended beyond government appointments into party structures, local political relationships and a generation of politicians who rose under his administration.

Yet political machines are rarely permanent.

Once a politician leaves office, the balance of power begins to shift. The incumbent controls the machinery of government, new alliances emerge, and former supporters are forced to reconsider their political calculations.

That appears to be what is happening in Kaduna.

For Governor Uba Sani, the return of prominent former El-Rufai associates strengthens his political camp and demonstrates that the APC remains capable of attracting figures who were previously aligned with the opposition ADC.

For El-Rufai, the defections represent a painful reminder that political loyalty can be conditional.

This is perhaps one of the harshest realities of politics: people may stand beside you when you possess power, but circumstances can change when that power disappears.

The real test of a political legacy is therefore not how many people surround a politician while he is in office. It is how much of that political structure remains standing after he leaves.

El-Rufai's current predicament will test that legacy.

His former allies are making their choices. The APC is welcoming them back. Uba Sani is consolidating his political camp. And the ADC is preparing for another electoral contest.

Whether El-Rufai can rebuild or maintain his political influence from outside the immediate structures of power remains to be seen.

But one thing is already clear: Kaduna politics has entered a new phase.

The political family that once appeared tightly bound around El-Rufai is showing visible cracks.

And in politics, cracks in an alliance can quickly become a complete realignment.