Set Militia Leaders Against Opposition . I applied for the job in 2010 but received approval on March 4 - Dr Fasehun . ‘Previous contracts didn’t halt oil theft’
“Most of the security agencies that are saddled with the responsibility to protect the pipelines have failed,” Otunba Gani Adams, the national coordinator of the Odua People’s Congress (OPC), said last week Monday, in reaction to questions being raised about the propriety of Federal Government’s award of multi-million naira contracts for pipelines and waterways protection to militant groups in the South-West. Adams, whose militant group, a faction of the OPC had, two days earlier, won the security contract was even more forceful in defence of what many Nigerians labelled as a largesse for vote. “People are dying every day. Nigeria is losing more than N3 billion everyday [to] illegal vandals,” he said, trying frantically to pin justifications to the job. “The agitation for that contract was started by Dr Frderick Fasehun, four and a half years ago and you know the bureaucracy of the Nigerian ministry,” he said to the approval of his face-cap-wearing supporters, accompanying him on a protest to press for the removal of the chairman of the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), Prof Attahiru Jega. Coming at a time when tongues were wagging in consternation over the project, Adams’ explanation, instead of clearing the air, further choked it and elicited more questions. Why did the government suddenly realize the need to approve a contract proposal that had been left to gather dust, just two weeks to an election? The move was largely seen as the president’s trump card to sway predicted victory in the region from his opponent, Muhammadu Buhari, to his own side. President Goodluck Jonathan, afraid of losing the presidential contest to his main challenger in the battleground South-West, had temporarily relocated from the seat of power in Abuja to Lagos, a state with over six million registered voters, the largest in the country. While there, it was rumoured that the president had presented cash gifts to various groups, including traditional rulers, across the entire region. The security contract was interpreted as part of the last ditch struggle to save Jonathan from defeat. The OPC, last week, under Adams, Monday staged a protest in Lagos, demanding the sack of Jega as INEC chairman, accusing him of bias. That the group had never criticized the electoral umpire’s handling of the polls prior to the approval of the contract, sparked allegations linking the Federal Government to the protest, with the main opposition All Progressives Congress (OPC) threatening to report President Jonathan to the International Criminal Court (ICC). OPC’s founder, Fasehun, does not see any wrong getting the contract as a payback for supporting Jonathan’s political ambition “Does anybody grant favour to his or her enemy? We don’t even need to answer that. It is the law of nature,” he quipped, unapologetically.
The controversial contract Pipelines and waterways monitoring jobs are not new to militants in the Niger Delta, where companies owned by former warlords like Government Ekpemupolo (aka Tompolo) and Mujaheed Asari Dokubo were awarded millions of dollar contracts to ensure the safety of the oil infrastructure and waterways. In 2012, for instance, a company Global West Vessel Specialist Limited, belonging to Tompolo, was given a security contract to the tune of $103 million. The American Wall Street Journal once reported that Tompolo is actually being paid $22.0 million for a contract to guard pipelines of the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC). Niger Delta People’s Volunteer Force leader, Asari-Dokubo was also mentioned as getting $9 million for a similar contract, while two others, Boyloaf and Ateko Tom are receiving $3.8 million each, also for similar contracts. What is new, however, is the expansion of the beneficiaries of such lucrative contracts to many other ex-militant leaders in states South-South and, for the first time, OPC leaders in the South-West, about two weeks to the general elections. Media report listed companies like Egbe Security River One in Bayelsa, Gallery Security, Mosinmi-Ore; Close Body Protection, Edo State; Adex Energy Security, Rivers and Age Global Security, Mosinmi, Ibadan as the beneficiaries of the contracts which would come into effect from March 16, 2015. Government has always defended its policy of awarding contracts to militants with the prevalence of rampant oil theft, especially in the Niger Delta. In 2013, Minister of Finance, Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, put the amount Nigeria was losing to oil thieves at N155 billion monthly. Earlier this month, the Chief of Naval Staff, Rera Admiral Usman Jibril, said the country was still losing N1.18 billon daily to oil theft.
Tension among ex-militant groups Last week, ex- militants under the aegis of Ex-Freedom Fighters in the Niger Delta, staged a protest in Yenagoa, Bayelsa State capital, over the alleged plan by the state governor, Seriake Dickson, to hijack the multi-million dollar Oil Pipeline Surveillance Contract given to the oil producing communities in the state by the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation, NNPC. No fewer than nine persons were seriously injured in the protest which degenerated into a fierce confrontation between the ex-militants and the police. One of the leaders of the protest, Eris Paul, popularly known as General Ogunboss, said the protest was against an alleged plot by Governor Dickson to hijack multi million dollar NNPC pipeline surveillance contracts to communities in the state. “Most of the south southern states have signed the allocation of the surveillance contract, but Dickson is insisting that the job be awarded to a self-styled company known as Izon Ibe, a security outfit that we don’t know. Dickson should concentrate on the use of state allocation and internally generated revenue to advance the good of the state rather than hijack jobs coming to communities,” alleged. However, in its reaction, the Bayelsa State government said the rationale behind the establishment of the state-owned Izon-Ibe Security Company was part of efforts to address the challenges of youth unemployment. The position, which was made known in a government statement, said the security outfit was basically set up to provide special training for youths and engage them for the purposes of security services. According to the statement, “the Izon-Ibe Security firm is a limited liability company that is a community-based security and empowerment scheme for Bayelsa youths across the communities with the active involvement of the chiefs and leaders to train youths in the surveillance of pipeline and guard duties.” It stated that the government’s attention has been drawn to some ex-militant leaders, whose activities constitute a breach of the existing peace, noting that, hitherto, they were beneficiaries of pipeline contracts which they failed to execute. The statement expressed displeasure that such ex-militants were being used by those it described as misguided politicians to embark on “senseless public demonstrations” within and outside the state capital. “The position of the government is that pipeline surveillance contracts are not for ex-militant leaders alone, most of whom hail from a particular local government area. The state-owned security company is for all persons in the state and will ensure that they are made to carry out their duties effectively. There are youths from other local government areas that must benefit from these contracts and not just Bajeros, whose promoters are only from Southern Ijaw Local Government area”, the statement noted. But reinforcing the position of the ex-militants, another group implored the governor to stop creating problems in Ijaw land. In a statement signed by the head of the group, General Aso Tambo, the ex-militants urged the governor to concentrate on the task of providing leadership to the people of Bayelsa, instead of cornering contracts they had genuinely fought for. The group also accused the governor of conniving with the outgoing president of the Ijaw Youth Council (IYC), Udengs Eradiri, who is a director in the state-owned security company to corner 50 percent of the jobs for their private interest. But countering their position, another militant under the aegis of the Mangrove Boys of Bayelsa (MBB), issued a warning to ex-militant leaders, particularly Victor Ebikabowei (alias Boyloaf), Eris Paul (Ogunboss) and Pastor Reuben against causing trouble in the state. The group said it would no longer fold its hands and watch a few individuals from the Southern Ijaw Local Government area continue to hijack and selfishly enrich themselves with what they called the commonwealth of the people “The pipeline surveillance job is not their birthright. All the militant leaders disturbing the peace of Bayelsa and trying to hijack the contract through their company, BAJERO, are just from one local government area, which is Southern Ijaw. “They do not represent the interests of all of us in the entire state. As formidable freedom fighters, we will not allow these leaders to cheat us again because the contract is meant for our rural communities,” they contended. The statement, signed by the secretary of the group, Mr. Victor Adere, said the group would resist further violent demonstrations in the state by ex-militants and their leaders. Adere added that the group is fully in support of the governor, Mr. Dickson in his efforts to ensure that the state-owned Izon Ibe Security Company executes the contract for the benefit of everybody in the state. Meanwhile, the president, Ijaw Youth Council Worldwide, Mr. Eradiri, has raised the alarm that some ex-militant leaders were plotting to kill him. He claimed that the ex-militants wanted him dead because of his position on the NNPC surveillance contract.
Anti-Jega rally causes disaffection in OPC Following last week’s rally by the Oodua Peoples Congress (OPC) in Lagos where the Gani Adams-led faction of the body called for the resignation of INEC Chairman, Professor Attahiru Jega, some members of his group have called on the National Coordinator to resign his position for joining partisan politics. The aggrieved members of the body yesterday (Saturday) described the OPC rally against Prof. Jega as a shame, not only to the Yoruba people, but the oppressed in the country that look forward to liberation through a free and fair elections. Speaking on the controversial rally, the National Welfare Officer of the body, Monsuru Akannde, said that the OPC factional leader had derailed from the aims and objectives of the organisation by becoming partisan and using the organisation as a political tool for President Goodluck Jonathan’s re-election. He alleged that the anti-Jega rally staged by OPC last week Monday in Lagos was organised by Gani Adams in his individual capacity and not supported by OPC as a body, to justify the recent contract worth several millions of naira awarded to him by the President Jonathan’s government. Akande said the majority of OPC members of Gani Adams-led faction were not in support of the use of OPC for personal motives and condemned his romance with politicians. He therefore asked Adams to disassociate himself from partisan politics or resign as OPC National Coordinator. “We are not in support of Gani Adams using OPC as political tools to campaign for any political party or politician. We advice him to put a stop to this or leave OPC and go into partisan politics. We abhor his romance with any political party, he should not kill the dreams of millions of OPC members. He should save us from being labelled Jonathan’s bulldog,” he said. Akande argued that his group’s stand against Gani Adams rally against Jega was not to create another faction of OPC saying, “All what we are saying is that he should separate OPC from politics. For organising a political rally in support of a political party or a candidate in a political election has shown the entire world that he is interested in politics. He shouldn’t continue to fool Yoruba that he is keeping their culture alive through OPC activities only for him to purse political agenda. It’s obvious he cannot protect the interest of OPC again,” Akande said. However, in a swift reaction to Akande’s group demand, APC National Publicity Secretary, Hakeem Ologunro described the new group as ‘the hawks’ that are beginning to display their desperation as the general elections draws nearer. He recalled that Akande has been suspended as the Welfare Chairman of the OPC since 2007 for shaddy deals. “As far as we’re are concern, the likes of Akande are not a reliable individual. He was expelled from the Congress for anti - party activities since 2007.
Oil theft persists What is, however, worrisome to stakeholders is that even with the security contract in the hands of the ex-militant leaders, vandals are still breaking the pipelines and stealing crude oil in the communities, most especially in Southern Ijaw local government area. This development apparently led to the establishment of the Southern Ijaw Oil and Gas Task Force by the local government chairman, Chief Remember Ogbe. The task force is made up of community members and security agents, who patrol the area to check activities of pipeline vandals and oil thieves. Even so, security sources in the state say the worst cases of illegal crude oil refining and oil theft are recorded in Gbaramatoru in Southern Ijaw. Again, with the frequent arrests of suspected oil thieves and pipeline vandals by the Joint Task Force Operation Pulo Shield, the Central Naval Command and the Nigerian Security and Civil Defence Corps (NSCDC) in the state, observers say the ex-militants are only pocketing millions of dollars on pipeline security without achieving any result.
How to protect pipelines better The issue of contracting ex-militants to protect oil pipelines cannot be entirely dismissed as an unholy practice because of their knowledge of the terrain and the difficulty in deploying government forces to effectively perform the task, a security expert, Col Aminu Isa Kontagora, has argued. The retired military officer explained that neither the police nor the Navy can singlehandedly guarantee security to the networks of hundreds of kilometers of pipelines that run the entire length and breadth of the Niger Delta creeks. “Imagine even Delta State alone. How many pipes criss-cross the state? The same as places like Rivers, Akwa -Ibom and Bayelsa states. There are so many of them. I don’t think the police can protect every inch of those pipes and that was why it has been extremely difficult. Even the Navy cannot. How many creeks are in the Niger Delta region? Many of the oil theft are done with wooden canoe barges. There are limitations to some of the Naval ships getting into the creeks,” he said. According to him, the need to protect the assets, more than ever before, was underscored by people’s exposure to easy money that oil stealing can provide. “The issue of oil theft will keep coming up because once they have seen that it is lucrative and with little efforts to protect the pipelines, those engaging in pipe breaking will always want to continue with it,” he said. If Tompolo, for instance, would be patriotic and honest in guaranteeing sustained oil flow in the creeks, it would be to Nigeria’s advantage to hire him, he said, pointing, however, that internal competition among the ex-militants may cripple such an arrangement in the long run. “He (Tompolo) must have participated in the vandalization at one time or the other. He cannot deny that. He knows the tactics, he knows his boys in the illegal business and if he can pay them well, maybe the pipelines will be safe. But I know that with the criminality in the oil industry, at one stage his boys will betray him and continue with the stealing of the crude,” he added. “In the Middle East, particularly Saudi Arabia where pipes are in the deserts, there are observation posts manned with cameras and satellite facilities to monitor the pipelines. Here, ours are in the creeks, in the mangroves and you know they grow very fast, so we have to clear the ways and this is another task. That is why our pipelines are more vulnerable to vandals’ activities and theft than most of the countries. But I know that there is nowhere in the world where this problem does not exist,” he said. The retired colonel advocated three strategies that could permanently address the challenges of oil pipeline management in the Niger Delta. “Who owns the pipes? Can we sell the pipelines to Tompolo, instead of telling him to man them, so that he gets royalty from anybody that pumps in oil? This will reduce the theft because he will now take it as his own personal business. But if they are seen as government property, because of our mentality, the theft will continue. Secondly, government can employ the locals along the routes to protect the pipelines. Thirdly, the business of the theft of crude can be made unattractive. That means we must destroy the barges that are used for stealing crude and impound the vessels that are found with stolen crude. We must as well destroy illegal refineries so that we can reduce the incentives to steal the crude. Crude oil is wanted all over the world, as such the criminality in the oil industry is so high that we can only reduce it; we can hardly eliminate it,” Kontagora said. A maritime consultant, Rear Admiral Godwill Ortom (rtd), also toed the line of applying force to discourage oil thieves. “To reduce pipeline vandalism, you have to blow up any ship involved in this sabotage and no other ship will come near Nigeria to buy stolen and cheap oil. Whenever oil is stolen, a mother ship is positioned on the high-sea to ferry the oil, so if you blow it up no ship would come to still your oil again,” he pointed.
‘It’s wrong to reward rebellion’ However, the Chairman of the Arewa Consultative Forum (ACF), Alhaji Ibrahim Coomassie, has a different opinion with regards to the propriety of awarding security contracts to ex-militants, saying the practice was wrong. Coomassie, a former police Inspector General, said it was inappropriate for government to award security contracts to people who rebelled against the country or people suspected of illegal behavior. “It is very wrong. How can you give a rebel - someone who took up arms against his country - “security contract?” He said there were qualified government agencies to handle maritime security matters, not individuals with questionable integrity. The former police boss advised the government to review the contracts in the interest of the nation, adding that such matters must be approved by the National Assembly. Also reacting, a civil society activist and executive director of the Civil Society Legislative Advocacy Centre (CSLAC), Auwal Ibrahim Rafsanjani, faulted the contract on the grounds of its capacity to destroy public institutions. The legislative and anti-corruption campaigner further observed that the awards had not met basic due process requirements. “Unfortunately, it is Nigeria and Nigerians that are losing, because if he (Jonathan) bastardizes this institution by dashing out public money to militant leaders, it means he is encouraging them to do whatever they like and this is inviting violence to the country,” he said. Rafsanjani held that struggle for power and political gains must not promote illegality. “If Boko Haram is ready to support the president, does it mean it can also be given the money and the space to do what it is doing? If you look at what the sect is doing and what the militias are doing, there is little difference in them because it is about killing, disrupting public peace and terrorizing the people,” he asserted. He said the Nigerian security agencies had been undermined by Jonathan’s administration to the point that they were not being allowed to carry out their constitutional duties. “How can a government hire or award contracts to militias to protect its waterways and pipelines when the security agents are there? Despite this, the oil theft has not stopped, in fact, it is on the increase. The contract will only perpetuate the leakages, vandalization and theft in the oil industry,” he noted. He added that Nigeria records the highest rate of oil theft in the world despite the contracts awarded to the militia warlords to provide security for the oil installations. “These people do not have any track records to show that they are capable of providing the required security for our waterways and oil pipes. We have the naval personnel that are well trained, but were sidelined and replaced with militants in the name of politics. This is very unfortunate for the country because we will be encouraging militias to thrive in Nigeria. This is not a good approach to involve them in politics; it’s a way of encouraging them to carry arms against our country,” Rafsanjani cautioned.
‘Contracts will provide jobs’ However, both Fasehun and Adams, have defended the job, arguing that it would create a platform that can provide thousands of job opportunities to youths in the South-West. “This is a contract coming from a government agency, the NNPC, coming to a Nigerian company that will be making use of Nigerian people to do the job. And the company which has the award will also be making use of about 30,000 to 40,000 Nigerians, who will be executing the contract. If you consider the dent on the unemployment statistics in Nigeria, you will agree with me that the approval is worthwhile. Again if you consider the ripple effect, the number of ancillary people attached to these beneficiaries, many of whom have fathers, mothers, uncles, brothers, sisters and wives, you will agree it is worthwhile,” said Fasehun. When asked if the award was politically motivated, Fasehun retorted: “All that should concern Nigerians is that the contract was awarded, that unemployment will be reduced by over 40,000 people. It is not Dr Fasehun that will execute the contract. It is the youths of this country, many of whom are unemployed. So, if anyone is going to make a comment, it should be a positive comment…. And even if Jonathan was the one who thought of awarding the contract, God bless him. What was the cry of the Nigerian youth against him? Was it not that unemployment was going higher and higher?” Similarly, Adams said the contract would give him the opportunity to empower 15,000 youths. “We are not part of the amnesty the Niger Delta (militants) have been enjoying which runs into billions of naira. No dime was given to the OPC and we have paid our price and suffered casualties, more than the Niger Delta (militants) did. Why should it benefit only the Niger Delta and not the South-West too…. It will end hooliganism and empower youths,” he added.(Culled From Daily Trust)
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Gunmen believed to be kidnappers attacked a commercial vehicle belonging to Benue Links, the state-owned transport company.
About 17 candidates travelling to Otukpo for their examination centres in the ongoing Unified Tertiary Matriculation Examination (UTME) are feared to have been abducted, although the exact number of victims remains unclear.
Information available to our correspondent says that the incident took place between 7–8 p.m. on Wednesday, April 15, along the Benue Burnt Bricks in Otukpo, Otukpo Local Government Area (LGA) of Benue State.
According to sources, the assailants waylaid the bus and robbed the occupants of their belongings before whisking them away into the bush.
An eyewitness, who spoke to journalists on the condition of anonymity, said the Benue Links bus, which was conveying about 18 passengers, ran into the kidnappers at about 8:00 p.m. on Wednesday night.
“The passengers were mainly young persons heading to Otukpo to sit for the JAMB examination scheduled for Thursday.
“Two people, the driver and one passenger, managed to escape. Incidentally, the passengers were mainly young men and women who travelled to sit for the JAMB examination scheduled for today (Thursday),” he said.
When contacted, the General Manager of Benue Links, Mr Alexander Fanafa, confirmed the incident, noting that the driver of the bus is presently undergoing interrogation at the police station in Otukpo for violating the company’s safety policy not to travel beyond 6:00 p.m.
He said, “As I speak with you, the driver has been arrested and is under investigation for traveling against company directive. I have warned all drivers to stop night journeys, as they would be held as first suspects if anything unfortunate happens.”
The General Manager further stated that the driver took his vehicle and loaded the passengers who were heading to Otukpo after official hours when the park manager, Mr Amedu, had closed, and ran into trouble, so he has been arrested.
The Executive Chairman of Otukpo Local Government Council, Prince Maxwell Ogiri, confirmed the incident, saying that it occurred between 7 and 8 p.m. on Wednesday.
He added that security agents have been mobilized to rescue the victims, stating that the victims are all young people coming to Otukpo to write JAMB examinations.
“It is true, I’m just coming out from a security meeting, and security operatives have been moved into the forest to help rescue the kidnapped victims.
“The victims are mainly young boys and girls coming to Otukpo to write JAMB,” Ogiri said.
However, when contacted, the Benue State Commissioner of Police, Ifeanyi Emenari, confirmed the situation, but said 14 passengers were kidnapped, while one passenger escaped.
The commissioner disclosed that he had already arrived in Otukpo and is conducting the rescue operation.
“I am in Otukpo now with all my team and DPOs who are here in the bush, and I am heading the operation.
“What happened was that one Benue Links bus carrying passengers coming to Otukpo was stopped and attacked by hoodlums, and 14 passengers were kidnapped, but one was able to escape,” he said.
According to him, the command had commenced an investigation into the incident, particularly the circumstances surrounding the journey.
He maintained that Benue Links management has a policy against night travel, but the driver allegedly picked up passengers after official hours.
“We know that Benue Links has a policy and don’t usually drive at night. So from what I got, they have already closed, but the driver, for reasons best known to him which we are still trying to find out, picked passengers along the road, and when he came here, the story you have is what we are having.
“But as we are investigating, we are on the ground to make sure that the victims are rescued,” Emenari said.
News
There are governments that save for the rainy day, governments that prepare for the storm, and governments that, when the heavens open and money falls like tropical rain, rush outside with buckets full of holes. Nigeria, under President Bola Tinubu, has perfected a fourth category: the government that borrows during a windfall. It is a feat of fiscal acrobatics so astonishing that even the most cynical observers of Abuja’s budgetary theatre must pause in admiration. For decades, Nigeria has squandered oil booms with the reliability of a metronome. But this administration has achieved something more ambitious: it has managed to squander a boom before it even finishes arriving.
The US–Iran war has sent oil prices soaring to $115 per barA Government Addicted to Debtrel, nearly double the government’s benchmark of $64.85. Nigeria is earning an extra $92 million every single day; a torrent of unbudgeted cash that would make even the most jaded petro state accountant blush. In barely a month, Abuja has pocketed almost $3 billion in windfall revenue. If the conflict drags on, the country could rake in $30–$36 billion this year alone. And what has the Tinubu administration done with this unexpected bounty? Why, it has gone on a borrowing binge, of course.
In the past week alone, the National Assembly approved: a $5 billion loan from First Abu Dhabi Bank; a $1 billion UKEF backed loan for Lagos ports; a $6 billion external borrowing package, rubber stamped in under four hours, and a N68.323 trillion budget; the largest in Nigeria’s history. This is not fiscal policy. This is a national credit card with no spending limit. Nigeria’s public debt now hovers around $115 billion, and debt servicing will gulp N20.5 trillion in 2026; more than the budgets of health, education, and infrastructure combined. Yet the government borrows as though it were a teenager discovering online shopping for the first time. One might have expected that a historic oil windfall would inspire restraint. Instead, Abuja behaves like a gambler who wins the lottery and immediately takes out a loan to buy more lottery tickets.
The Senate: From Upper Chamber to Upper Cashier
The Senate’s role in this farce deserves special mention. Once conceived as a check on executive excess, it now functions as a conveyor belt for presidential loan requests. The $6 billion borrowing package was approved with the speed of a fast food order; no debate, no scrutiny, no hesitation. Former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, hardly a stranger to Nigeria’s fiscal melodramas, described the approval as “reckless urgency.” He is being polite. The Senate has not merely abdicated oversight; it has embraced its new role as a ceremonial stamp of approval, a kind of legislative rubber chicken waved over every loan document. One wonders whether senators even bother to read the fine print anymore, or whether they simply check the exchange rate, sigh, and sign.
The Oil Windfall That Will Not Be Saved
Other countries treat oil windfalls as blessings. Norway built a sovereign wealth fund so large it could buy entire countries. Saudi Arabia uses its surpluses to diversify its economy. Even Angola; long mocked for its corruption, has learned to stash away a portion of its oil riches. Nigeria, by contrast, treats windfalls as invitations to spend more, borrow more, and plan less. The Excess Crude Account, once envisioned as a rainy day fund, is now emptier than a politician’s promise after election day. The Sovereign Wealth Fund is a polite fiction. And fiscal discipline is a rumor whispered in the corridors of the Ministry of Finance. The tragedy is not that Nigeria is poor. The tragedy is that Nigeria is mismanaged.
The revised N68.323 trillion budget is a monument to fiscal optimism. It allocates N15.8 trillion to debt servicing; N15.4 trillion to recurrent expenditure, and N32.2 trillion to capital projects, many of them rolled over from previous years because the government failed to implement them. This is not a budget. It is a wish list. The government insists that the spending spree will “stimulate growth,” “unlock infrastructure,” and “stabilize the economy.” These are the same phrases Nigerian governments have used since the 1970s, usually moments before the economy collapses under the weight of its own contradictions.
Borrowing to Service Borrowing
The most farcical element of the Tinubu administration’s fiscal strategy is its reliance on borrowing to service existing borrowing. Nigeria now borrows to pay interest on previous loans, borrows to refinance old debts, borrows to fund recurrent expenditure, and borrows to cover budget gaps. This is not fiscal management. It is a Ponzi scheme with national colors. The administration insists that the debt is “sustainable.” So did Greece in 2008. So did Argentina in 2001. So did Nigeria in the 1980s; right before the IMF arrived with structural adjustment programs (SAP) that Nigerians still curse today.
Nigeria’s economy is a house built on sand: the naira remains fragile, inflation is suffocating households, foreign investors are fleeing, debt service consumes most of national revenue, oil production is unstable and non oil revenue is anemic. And yet, in the middle of this storm, the government has chosen to borrow more; at a moment when it should be saving aggressively. The oil windfall is a gift. But gifts require stewardship. And stewardship requires discipline. Neither is in abundant supply in Abuja.
Conclusion: A Nation at the Edge of a Fiscal Cliff
The expanded budget includes lavish allocations to the judiciary ahead of the 2027 elections, feasibility studies for politically convenient infrastructure, and capital projects that conveniently align with electoral maps. This is not economic planning. It is election year choreography. Nigeria is not being prepared for the future. It is being prepared for the polls.
The Tinubu administration inherited a difficult economy. But it has chosen to make it worse. Instead of using the oil windfall to rebuild reserves, strengthen the currency, reduce borrowing, and stabilize the economy, it has embarked on a reckless spending spree financed by loans that future generations will be forced to repay. Nigeria is earning billions, and saving nothing. And it is borrowing everything. History will not be kind to this moment. Nor will the bond markets. In the end, Nigeria’s tragedy is not that it lacks resources. It is that it lacks restraint. And in Abuja today, restraint is as scarce as electricity.
Business
In The Spotlight
On Friday, Nigeria’s Defence Headquarters confirmed the death of the Commander of the 29 Task Force Brigade in Benisheikh, Borno State, Brigadier General Oseni Braimah, and three other soldiers, following a ruthless attack on the military formation. Though this confirmation calmed initial reports that more than 17 soldiers were killed in the April 9, 2026 attack, it, however, ignited a deeper cause for concern among Nigerians, considering the fact that just about five months earlier, another brigadier general, Musa Uba, was murdered in cruel but avoidable circumstances near Wajiroko, in the same Borno State.
The attack on the military formation was not the only terrorist strike that week. That same Thursday, the devastating news of the soldiers who paid the supreme price had not been fully digested when another report filtered in, at night, that no fewer than eight persons had been killed by gunmen, in Mbwelle village, Bokkos Local Government Area of Plateau State. This was besides the bloodshed recorded in Shanga Local Government Area of Kebbi State on Easter Sunday, where 24 people were killed, according to the Kontagora Catholic Diocese, and in Kebbi and Kwara states, where 49 villagers were reportedly killed on Friday.
Despite the confusion, mourning and grief that followed the killing of these helpless civilians in various communities, described by authorities as some of the deadliest incidents recorded in recent months, the report of the military formation invasion and the killing of soldiers specifically caused panic attacks among citizens and gave a “hopeless situation” slant to the worsening security crisis. And this has become a trend since the beginning of the Boko Haram insurgency in 2009.
It is true that Nigeria’s security forces under the current administration have been dismantling bandit networks and killing scores of terrorists. But the relentless attacks on innocent citizens, which have led to the death of over 10,000 people in two years, and the kidnapping of more than 1,100 people in northern Nigeria, in just four months, appear to have enveloped security agencies’ efforts and boxed the current All Progressives Congress administration into a more precarious corner than previous opposition governments.
A few analysts have tried to compare the security situation under the late former President Muhammadu Buhari with the situation now. While some scored the President Bola Tinubu administration above his predecessor’s, others like Olu Fasan, in his article: “Recurring bloodbath: Nigeria is too fragile, too fractured to be safe”, said, “It has taken Tinubu less than three years in office to achieve a worse security situation than Buhari did in (his) eight years in power.”
I may not directly agree with this notion, but I know that the prevailing economic hardship or widespread poverty in the country, despite significant, growth-targeted policy reforms like exchange rate unification, subsidy removal, and fiscal coordination, can be justifiably linked to rising insecurity.
The Nigerian Institute of Social and Economic Research, in a 2024 study brief, titled: “Insecurity takes the lead as the key driver of poverty in Nigeria”, said, “Once a country experiences conflict and insecurity, it faces a reversal of economic development, which in turn increases the likelihood of further conflict, resulting in a cycle economists refer to as doom-loop. By undermining household livelihood activities on massive scales in Nigeria, increasing insecurity in the last five years has not only intensified poverty in the country, but has also opened up new frontiers of multidimensional poverty across Nigeria.”
Insecurity, according to NISER, drives poverty by disrupting and destroying livelihood activities and by reducing access to basic needs, thereby stifling meaningful improvement in the quality of life in Nigeria. This argument can be better appreciated if one considers how many Nigerians have abandoned leisure or commercial farming, especially in rural areas, owing to rising insecurity.
It would be unfair to pin the blame for this lingering crisis on the current administration; past governments were not also able to do much to stem the tide. But the fact that political IOUs seemed to have trumped competence during the initial formation of President Tinubu’s cabinet inadvertently gave room for unpalatable political treatment of delicate security matters across the states.
The Ministry of Defence, according to analysts, was the worst hit until recently, as analysts found it difficult to decode the consideration behind the choice of the two ministers who were initially saddled with such a priority responsibility. Perhaps, if the issue of security had been given the kind of attention it is being given now, from the beginning of the current administration, the terrorists might not have been this emboldened amid international focus.
The result is that, unlike when Nigeria was ranked the Number One Destination for Investment in Africa for two consecutive years (2012 and 2013), other African countries have, since then, continued to displace the nation, owing to a combination of factors, including accessibility and innovation, economic stability and investment climate, among others.
Of the 31 countries that were tracked in the 2024 edition of the “Where to Invest in Africa” report, published by Rand Merchant Bank and the Gordon Institute of Business Science, Nigeria was ranked as the ninth most viable destination for investment in Africa, behind South Africa, in fourth position; and Ghana, sixth. The 2025 report sadly reflected a further decline for Nigeria, by nine places, to the 18th position.
It doesn’t take an economist to understand that banditry, kidnapping, killings, among other forms of security crisis being witnessed on a large scale in Nigeria, can seriously damage the investment climate and trigger capital flight. Any government that picks the socio-economic well-being of its citizens as Number One on its priority chart must, therefore, go all out to first ensure the security of lives and property, against all odds.
That the Federal Government has published a list of 48 individuals linked to terrorism financing is a step in the right direction. That it has also secured 386 convictions, out of 508 cases in a mass terrorists’ trial, is another feat that can deter others and stem the tide, but politicians must, in the interest of the masses and the well-being of the nation, stop playing politics with this sensitive issue of insecurity.
Rather than mock or blame the APC administration for the current predicament, opposition figures and Nigerians as a whole must converge on the need to be united against this monster. However, the Tinubu administration must also avoid actions or statements that could trigger a revolt at this period. With the economic challenges from almost every angle, Nigerians seem to be constantly on edge.
In March 2014, the APC, then the main opposition party, lambasted the former President Goodluck Jonathan administration for trying to cover up its “incompetence and cluelessness” in tackling the Boko Haram insurgency.
The APC, in a statement signed by Lai Mohammed, its interim National Publicity Secretary at the time, said, “A country that has no discernible counter-terrorism strategy that will clearly identify the multiple means for preventing, responding and defeating terrorist groups, including the alignment of political, military, social and economic instruments and objectives, cannot expect to successfully battle any insurgency.”
Now that the APC is the ruling party, and Nigeria is still not out of the woods, should citizens still agree with the party’s assertion? How the authorities handle the situation will determine the answer. What goes around comes around!
In The Spotlight
Nearly 40 years ago in London, I was invited to dinner by a Nigerian woman I knew in Lagos.
She had described the place in general terms, but I arrived at an upscale home with some serious luxury. She was kind enough to show me around, and following a stylish dinner, she described how she had acquired the place, mentioning headline Nigerian names.
I had no reason to doubt her: some of them called during the evening. I declined her offer to share her conversations with them.
It was my personal introduction to the scale of Nigerian property in the English capital, as she described who owned what or lived where.
While my visits to England at the time were work-related and I had little time to socialise, I did meet several teenage Nigerian students whose parents were glad to send them abroad for education.
They patrolled the streets of London in exotic cars, and I thought it was ironic that, in isolation away from Nigeria, the young ladies were often being manipulated by their fathers’ friends.
In the decades that followed, I read stories of politically exposed Nigerians, particularly state governors, for whom the UK was the first address in money laundering.
On a few occasions, I have alluded to that phenomenon in this column. They acquired expensive homes, cars and even gold phones. One, Diepreye Alamieyeseigha, fled London disguised as a woman. Another, James Ibori, was tried and jailed.
Keep in mind that there have been about 185 governors since May 1999, and that London is nearly always their first port of call.
It is humbling to reflect on what percentage of this number has, in the past 26 years, sunk Nigerian wealth into the soil of England, with considerable swathes lost to middlemen and smooth women.
Remember: in 2006, the then-Minister of State for Finance, Nenadi Usman, criticised governors, saying that they disappeared abroad just days after receiving state allocations and after visiting Bureau De Change operators.
In 2007, a famous Human Rights Watch report, “Chop Fine,” described the case of Rivers State in grim detail.
The problem is that it is not always governors, as demonstrated by the story, “Abuja on Thames,” which appeared in the British monthly, Private Eye, in March 2019. That month, I commented on that story, which involved the astonishing wealth in that country of Paul Ogwuma, a former governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria.
The full Nigerian picture of capital flight, elite consumption, and political patronage was on display when the Panama Papers in 2016 and the Pandora Papers in 2021, two massive international media investigations in which our Premium Times participated, uncovered how the world’s rich and powerful deploy offshore mechanisms to hide their possessions.
As always happens, no Nigerian lost a kobo, let alone a heartbeat, as a result of those investigations, because in Nigeria, crime and hypocrisy quite literally pay.
And then in 2024, a list appeared of 58 deceased Nigerians with unclaimed assets in the UK, as part of a daily-updated “Bona Vacantia” (BV) list, meaning that having remained unclaimed, they are now considered the property of the Crown.
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The Nigerian government does not inform Nigerians about the BV list or the claims process, so those properties are probably lost forever.
Remember also, the case of Nigerian “government” property on the verge of forfeiture in the UK a few years ago. In New York and Maryland, in the US, Nigerian governors and diplomats have left behind a long trail of property issues. In 2012, Alamieyeseigha forfeited $401,931 in traceable assets to the US government when President Jonathan’s government failed to claim them.
And so, the rich continue to flourish, and in January 2026, Tax Policy Associates of the UK published the extensive investigation, ‘Who secretly owns Britain? The hidden offshore owners of £460bn of UK property.’
A report in The Londoner, based on that investigation, peeled back the layers to link the late Herbert Wigwe, the former chief executive of Access Holdings, to about 106 properties. That placed him at No. 7 on a list of “The overseas power players in London’s property market,” with each property registered under shell companies outside the country, leaving none of them directly traceable to him.
While some of these practices are legal, especially on the part of private businessmen, the problem is that Nigeria has, for decades, been burdened by an army of much smaller ants eating away at her. Most of them are pillars of society, either claiming sainthood or praying for it, while the people from whom they amassed their wealth starve to death.
But there is another side: in Nigeria, the Tax Policy Associates investigation, like the arrests of Dariye and Alamieyeseigha and the trial of Ibori, would have been impossible.
“Abuja on Thames” would never have been investigated or published. Not the Pandora Papers. Not the Panama Papers.
Because we are traders. We are either buying or selling. When the aroma of money or power is present, some would sell their very souls. It is why we are where we are.
The system, of course, is in many ways pre-rigged. On real estate matters, we operate a fragmented administrative system with multiple overlapping authorities, incomplete digitisation, and overwhelming opacity. The FCT and state capitals are stories of greed.
This is because the Land Use Act vests all land in each state in the governor (and the President for the FCT). This means that, technically, no one “owns” land outright; one only holds a Certificate of Occupancy. That creates enormous scope for discretionary allocation and corruption, since governors and the FCT minister can grant or revoke rights, and often do.
This is why an FCT minister is a king. He can allocate land to whomever he pleases:
Relatives of the First Lady were thrice removed.
His wife.
Fourth cousins.
Underage children.
Governors, again.
EFCC officials.
ICPC officials.
Code of Conduct Bureau officials.
Girlfriends and their friends.
Supreme Court judges.
Court of Appeal judges.
INEC officials.
Senators.
Top police officers.
Among others, remember the FCT land scam of 2004; the Ministerial allegations involving the current FCT Minister, Nyesom Wike; and the 57 multi-billion-naira properties linked to former Attorney-General Abubakar Malami.
Just imagine what a Tax Policy Associates-style investigation of real estate ownership in Nigeria’s big cities would reveal.
Because in Nigeria, power is deployed into service only when we pray in the mosque or the church. Outside that, power is for the self.
And if you can export that power abroad in funds that belong to the commonwealth, to deprive other Nigerians of it and make you live like a king forever, so much the better!
Sonala Olumhense